Optimal harvesting of stochastically fluctuating populations

نویسندگان

  • Luis H. R. Alvarez
  • Larry A. Shepp
چکیده

We obtain the optimal harvesting plan to maximize the expected discounted number of individuals harvested over an infinite future horizon, under the most common (»erhulst-Pearl) logistic model for a stochastically fluctuating population. We also solve the problem for the standard variants of the model where there are constraints on the admissible harvesting rates. We use stochastic calculus to derive the optimal population threshold at which individuals are harvested as well as the overall value of the population in the sense of the model. We show that except under extreme conditions, the population is never depleted in finite time, but remains in a stationary distribution which we find explicitly. Needless to say, our results prove that any strategy which totally depletes the population is sub-optimal. These results are much more precise than those previously obtained for this problem.

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تاریخ انتشار 1998